Have 10 years of gun control worked in CO? CU Medical School invests heavily in guns as public health. You can't escape demographics.
Have 10 years of gun control worked in CO?
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Starting their examination with 2013, the year after the Aurora Theater Shooting and the first year of a serious push for gun control in this state, I think the overall best answer I am comfortable giving (having read The Reload's data) is that it's complicated.
First off, there is no way to definitively say that any policy or rule or lack thereof had any causal link to gun violence outcomes without experiment. Since the idea of experiment would be morally repugnant, I will never (nor should anyone else), ever, for any reason, claim a causal link or definitive proof. To do so would be dishonest, and this includes the so-called "natural experiments" that are touted as "natural experiments" are fraught with all kinds of control problems.
Outside of that, however, could we find any connection at all? Perhaps we cannot point to a direct causal connection between our state's policy and gun violence outcomes, but could we find that things are moving in the right direction?
Again, no.
There's a limit to the detail I have time and space to go into. I will therefore leave it to you to read up more for yourself at the link below.
What I would like to take a second to dig into in a little detail is the suicide rate in Colorado. I choose this because it's a corner of the gun violence discussion that seems to drive policy (i.e. suicide prevention is often given as a rationale), but we don't often see much in the way of numbers.
In screenshot 1, we have data from CDPHE vs. year. The top graph gives the suicide rate (suicides per 100,000 population) using firearms and the bottom graph gives it for suicides NOT committed with a firearm.
Some noteworthy trends here are the increase in all manner of suicides, something which has continued past the dawn of the "gun control period" of 2013 to present. Another trend to note is that the rate of suicides by firearm has increased more than that done by other means from about 2019 on.
In screenshot 2, we have a year by year comparison of gun-related suicide rate displayed by state. I.e. the individual colored bars in any group are different years, the different groups are different states.
Some noteworthy trends here are that year by year, it seems (if you squint a little) that multiple states are seeing an increase in suicides. I highlighted specially Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico because they present a study in contrasts. Colorado has a higher rate than both but Utah has less restrictive laws and New Mexico has similar laws to Colorado's.
What can we conclude?
It would not be right to conclude that nothing can be done policy-wise to help prevent suicide. it would also not be right to conclude that lax gun laws drive suicide, stricter ones prevent it, lax gun laws prevent it, or any other permutation.
To give you an example, one could reasonably argue that the increase in gun suicide rate here in Colorado, compared with other methods, is due to the fact that attempts at suicide by gun have a much higher "success" rate than other methods.
Still, stepping back a bit, we see that what we've done til now is not seeming to stem the tide. If we were anywhere near coming close to finding fixes that work, surely we'd see the needle move a little. And we don't see it move. Not from multiple angles (state by state comparison, rate comparisons, etc.)
I.e. there doesn't seem to be any association between our state's policy (or any other similar or any other laxer policy) and suicide rates.
You might reasonably make the argument that if there is no harm done, then we should cast our net far and wide. The thing is, casting about to try and find a solution is NOT harmless. It harms our rights under the Second Amendment, and has the potential to cause harm by preventing someone from being able to defend themselves.
Given that, we need to revisit our approach to regulations aimed at both preventing violence and suicide. The repeated application of laws to restrict ownership as we have seen over the last 10 years is not working. The one-way ratchet of gun laws--the application of more and more laws, one on top another, without any reconsideration, revisiting, or refinement--is not working. The main effect we've seen from efforts like these are gun restriction with nothing but a loss of freedom and or the ability to defend ourselves to shows for it.
https://thereload.com/analysis-has-a-decade-of-colorado-tightening-its-gun-laws-worked-member-exclusive/
***Related:
Presented by way of contrast.
To help drive home the point that there is more than one way to legislate (and that the way Democrats do it here isn't THE way, it's A way), note the below.
Tennessee's proposed approach to Red Flag laws.
https://thereload.com/analysis-what-makes-the-tennessee-governors-red-flag-proposal-different-member-exclusive/
A big big boost in funding for guns as public health issue.
If you've followed this page long enough, you'll note my concern about casting gun violence as a public health issue.
I'm signed up for a variety of newsletters and an interesting tidbit passed across my inbox recently. It's linked below.
CU just spent big on an expansion of the "Firearm Injury Prevention Initiative", to the tune of $4.5 million.
This group will be led by the same people as the other public health and guns efforts as in the past (with additional groups and people folded into the mix). This is also the same people as those contracted to run the state's Gun Violence Prevention office at the health department.
I'm not alleging a conspiracy, but given the push about gun control this last Assembly session (and the near certainty that they're not done yet), the additional money is concerning and something to watch.
We all know that, despite the rhetoric and despite the limitations, the work coming out of offices like these will, repeat will, be used to justify gun control. Their expansion is therefore something we need to watch.
Join me in keeping an eye on it. I will post as I see other things that concern me. If you hear or see something and don't see it here, please share.
https://news.cuanschutz.edu/emergency-medicine/cu-school-of-medicine-launches-firearm-injury-prevention-initiative
You can’t outrun demographics
Different people will probably see different things in the Colorado Springs mayoral race, I suppose it is something of a Rorschach test, but I see the same here as I did in the 2022 election.
You can't overpower demographics (and, to a certain degree, tribalism). Colorado Springs has been a holdout among big Colorado cities in terms of its politics. While Denver lurched ever-leftward, the Springs seemed to maintain its conservatism and Republican values.
The recent loss by a middle of the road Republican for mayor there (echoing, in my mind at least, the loss of Anderson for Secretary of State), speaks to the fact that the people doing the voting have changed to the point that even a moderate Republican cannot get elected.
Hell, I'm beginning to wonder at the outcome in a race between God and the Devil along the Front Range in Colorado provided the Devil had a (D) by his name and God had an (R).
I maintain hope in spite of this. I think that as the young'uns that moved here grow up and as the full force shock of the Progressive Democrat policy takes effect, we'll see some moderation. I think that if the Republicans wise up and let the more moderate voices be the loudest in the room (along with some serious work on messaging and some graduate-level courses in media savvy), we'll see some balance.
Until then, I will continue as I have done. I hope you do as well.
I hope you join me in being the voice in the crowd that asks "is this the proper role of government?" I hope you join me in being the voice at the hearing that holds Democrats to their choices and continues to keep counterarguments to their policy in front of their faces. I hope you join me in working at the local level to try and ameliorate the effects of the liberal policy wafting out of the Front Range.
https://coloradosun.com/2023/05/16/yemi-mobolade-colorado-springs-mayor/