Big Dem money pours into this state (has for a while). What can you do? Showing you how to get state economic forecasts right from the horse's mouth.
Building the Democrat political machine in this state hasn't been cheap, but more keeps rolling in.
And until the Republicans get their poop in a group, Democrat/leftist money will continue to dominate the politics in this state.
The Colorado Politics article below lists some of the major political donors who are spending big here. The politics on the list is perhaps not surprising, but it is disappointing to me, disappointing in a couple of ways.
I know that there are conservative/Republican donors giving in Colorado, but those of us that would wish for something closer to parity in this state probably have a long, long wait. Sad as it is to note, politics often follows money. All other things being equal, money drives issues and candidates.
But right now the demographics in this state is combining with the utter disarray in the Republican party to make it so that what money there is for our side of the aisle is a pitiful dribble compared to the firehose dousing the other side.
I can't blame the national party (or anyone else) for not wanting to give money. Why would anyone want to spend here, especially at the state level?
It's also disappointing to read the list of major donors because of how many of them are from out of state. Don't get me wrong, Republicans/conservatives take money in from out of state, and there is certainly no shortage of monied Coloradans giving per the list, but put what you see in the article next to all the dark money coming in.
My guess is you'll feel similar to me: Colorado is not her own anymore, Colorado is a playground for the wealthy to test out their social policy theories.
I'll talk more in the next post about what to do about this, but let me touch on it briefly here too. If you share my concerns, get involved in some way and encourage others to do the same.
Money does hold sway in elections, but it's not the only thing that does. An involved electorate, an informed one is more powerful.
If you want ideas, please feel free to message and let's see what we can come up with.
What can you do to counter the influence of the monied people in this state (like the "Big Four" in the photo)?
The previous post was about the sacks of cash going to Democrat/Leftist/Progressive causes and politicians from inside and outside the state.
At the end of that post I mentioned a general point about how to work against that influence. I want to follow up with some specifics.
I got the below from a reader, Mr. O'Reilly. He is heading up a group trying to get conservatives into non-partisan, special district offices around the state.
Give it a read. If what you see resonantes, contact him at the email address at bottom.
Get involved. Righting the ship will take awhile. It's been listing to the left for some time now and so efforts at bringing back balance will necessarily have to begin with small efforts. But small now doesn't mean small forever and it doesn't mean wasted. Any nonzero number is positive.
Please also share the link below with anyone you can think of that would be interested.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1whekJIJj0t_fqNE02v3TRUBKc6kFKgrd/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=105405937749106967542&rtpof=true&sd=true
So is it the end of TABOR refunds or the best refunds ever? Is it both?
Screenshot 1 attached shows the headlines for the CPR and Denver Post articles linked first and second below respectively.
If you're confused in reading them as to what exactly will be happening with TABOR refunds, I don't blame you. Though not necessarily contradictory, they diverge a bit, no?
I got some good news for you. You needn't get your news about budget forecasts filtered by anyone. In other words, you can get the news straight from the horse's mouth.
I'll show you how. The third link below will take you to the Colorado Legislative staff's economic forecasting page. Scroll down a ways and you'll see a button that will let you subscribe to their mailing list.
There is more you can subscribe to, but right there on the list will be economic forecasts. Sign up and you'll get the news delivered fresh and hot to your inbox.
Since we're here, and since I'd subscribed a bit back to the list (expect future posts as time and interest dictate), let's dig in on that question of TABOR refunds.
The actual forecast is linked fourth below. Let's first take a quick aside. Economic forecasts are like weather forecasts: the closer to the present, the better the predictive power. Thus, I'm not going to go too far into the future. I'm only going to look at the fiscal year 23/24 and 24/25 outlook.
I'll go one further. Reading a 92 page forecast is daunting. It's daunting if you're not an accountant and if you have a full time job doing something besides reading 92 page state budgets. Do not be intimidated. Stick close to the summaries and the tables at the start.
If you have time and interest, please read more, but I can almost guarantee that the reporters who write articles are not delving much deeper. I can also almost guarantee that even by just reading summaries that you'd be doing more than 80% of Coloradans (even elected officials) and would thus be as well if not better informed.
Knowing that, then, let me help you understand the highlights of the summary with regard to TABOR. Look with me at screenshot 2.
There are three things that will appear in the summary that are important in broad strokes to our state's budget. The first is how much is in reserve (our state's savings account), how much in the general fund (our state's operating money, approximately a checking account), and whether or not there is a surplus that would need a refund. In screenshot 2, those are blue, green, and yellow respectively.
For the remainder of this year we are expected to have more than the legally-required amount in our savings, but our checking account will be smaller because we're not taking in as much: the tax credits voted in last legislative session ate into that.
Still, due to entering into this part of the year with a healthy surplus (and with some "found money" due us--for context there, see my Complete op-ed linked fifth below), we'll get a pretty sizeable TABOR surplus/refund.
What about the near-term future? Look at screenshot 3. Same details as in 2, but now blue, green, purple for reserve, general fund, and surplus.
The state's economic forecasters are predicting a shortfall in our savings, a decrease in our checking, and a small (or possibly no) TABOR surplus. It doesn't say, but my guess is that Democrat tax credits are likely a big part of the cause here.
That is, tax credits mean that everyone will still pay the same taxes, except for, of course, those groups the Democrats think are more worthy of a break than you.
Another good thing to check is the budget overview in tabular format. That's on p 6 and shown in screenshot 4. I highlighted the first two columns here because those are the only ones I discuss above.
I will end the screenshots here, but look at line items 9 - 13 in the screenshot. If you do you want to delve a little deeper into the report, might I suggest some attention here. These are the items (e.g. from line item 9, the individual expenses are laid out in table 6 so you can just scroll down) where the state is spending your money.
I hope this was helpful. If you have a question sparked by looking through one of these reports or notice something, bring it to my attention. I may not know offhand, but I bet we can learn about it together and then share with others.
https://www.cpr.org/2024/09/19/possible-increase-in-tabor-refunds-colorado/
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/09/19/colorado-economic-forecast-tabor-refunds-budget-jared-polis/
https://leg.colorado.gov/agencies/legislative-council-staff/forecasting
https://leg.colorado.gov/sites/default/files/images/sept2024forecastforposting.pdf
Related:
Return to the state budget forecast in the post above. Take a look at a curiosity near the bottom of the Budget Overview in the screenshot.
If you're like me, you would wonder what exactly a "5% of personal income appropriations limit" is.
Check the below under the heading: "Colorado’s budget institutions, rules, and constraints"
p.s. my guess is that the Urban Institute is not exactly jazzed about this fiscal limit (probably they'd much rather the gov't take in more so it could spend more on progressive causes), but their explanation is sound and approachable.
https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/state-and-local-finance-initiative/projects/state-fiscal-briefs/colorado#:~:text=Colorado%20also%20limits%20spending%2C%20restricting,authorized%20debt%20and%20debt%20service.